One can blame Vladimir Putin for his notorious ambition for Russia’s moves in Ukraine, but the real reason might be far more down-to-earth and compelling: geography.
A 2016 edition of Tim Marshall’s Prisoners of Geography takes a refreshing look at geopolitics. It explains how the rivers, seas, mountains, glaciers, forests, and plains shape the international relations of Russia, China, the US, Western European nations, Africa, the Middle East, Korea and Japan, and Latin America.
It also describes the geography of India and Pakistan – the water arc of the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the Hindu Kush to the north-west and the Himalayas to the north, the plateau of the Balochistan desert, the north-west frontier mountains and the Karakorum mountains, that leads back to the Himalayas – forms the bloody ice rink of a tragic conflict.
There is a common perception (there is a good deal of truth in this) among international policy experts that Putin wants to be the person who, under his watch, will bring Ukraine back into Russia’s arms. The Russian President has given himself another 14 years of power.
Analysts say Putin wants to create a Russian empire. Ukraine is a crucial part of his plan. In a 2015 speech, Putin dubbed Ukraine the “crown jewel of Russia,” sparking alarm among Western authorities. It happened a year after Russia annexed Crimea and then part of Ukraine.
In 2021, Putin wrote another passionate piece.
“As a wall that has been built in recent years between Russia and Ukraine, between the parts of what is essentially the same historical and spiritual space, in my opinion, is our great common misfortune and tragedy. These are primarily the consequences of our own mistakes made at different times. But these are also the result of conscious efforts by those forces that have always sought to undermine our unity,” Putin wrote. “Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are all descendants of ancient Rus, the largest state in Europe. Slavic and other tribes across the vast territory — from Ladoga, Novgorod, and Pskov to Kiev and Chernihiv — were bound together by a language (what we now call Old Russian), economic ties, and the rule of the princes of the Rurik dynasty, and — after the baptism of Rus – the orthodox faith. The spiritual choice of St. Vladimir, who was both Prince of Novgorod and Grand Duke of Kiev, still largely defines our affiliation today. The throne of Kiev held a dominant position in ancient Rus. This had been the custom since the late 9th century. The history of years past recorded for posterity the words of the Prophet Oleg about Kiev: ‘Let it be the mother of all Russian cities.’”
But civilizational nostalgia or imperial design do not fully explain Russia’s need to invade Ukraine. When the USSR collapsed due to political overstretching, dire economic conditions and a defeat in Afghanistan and split into 15 countries, one by one disintegrated leaving them completely unprotected geographically.
“Moscow’s dream of warm waterways on the open sea has since petered out and is perhaps further along now than it was 200 years ago. This lack of a warm water port with direct access to the oceans has always been Russia’s Achilles’ heel, as strategically important to Russia as the North European Plain. Russia is geographically disadvantaged and is only saved from being a much weaker power because of its oil and gas,” writes Tim Marshall in Prisoners of Geography. “Geography has taken revenge on the ideology of the Soviets.”
He says that as long as there is a pro-Russian government in Kiev, the Russians have been confident that the buffer zone will remain in place and protect the North European Plain. A neutral Ukraine that stays away from the European Union or NATO and keeps the warm-water port of Sevastopol in Crimea on a leash would also be fine. Ukraine’s energy dependence on Russia was considered harmless.
“But a pro-Western Ukraine with ambitions to join the two major Western alliances and questioning Russia’s access to its Black Sea port? A Ukraine that could one day even host a NATO naval base? I couldn’t take it.”
Sevastopol is Russia’s only major warm water port. But access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean is restricted by the 1936 Montreux Convention, which gave NATO member Turkey control of the Bosphorus. In a time of conflict, even this approach could end.
Across the Bosphorus, the Aegean Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Strait of Gibraltar impede Russia’s movement to the Atlantic Ocean or its route to the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal. Its naval presence in Syrian Tartus is strategic but limited.
In the event of war, the Russian Navy cannot go out into the Baltic either, because NATO controls the Skagerrak Strait, which connects to the North Strait. If Russia passes the Skagerrak, the GIUK Gap (Greenland, Iceland, UK) in the North Sea will impede its advance to the Atlantic.
The geography was clearly not kind to a great nation and civilization. But will it help Russia wriggle out of this handicap? Only history will tell.
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